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Don Kaufman here. |
I just watched $300 billion of market cap shift in real time. |
You know what? I don't even care what NVIDIA's actual earnings numbers were. |
Look, everyone's obsessing over whether they "beat estimates." Meanwhile, I'm tracking something way more important: 3 million option contracts representing billions in liquidity, all predicated on a $12 expected move. |
And here's the crazy part - we're nowhere near done moving. |
Let me do some quick and dirty math for you. NVIDIA has 24 billion shares outstanding. A $1 move equals $24 billion in market cap. So when this thing moves its expected $12? That's $288 billion - roughly $300 billion of market cap shifting. |
To put that in perspective? That's bigger than Boeing's entire company. It's close to Costco's full market cap. |
But here's what's really getting my attention... |
While everyone's fixated on NVIDIA, I'm watching the mother of all products - the SPX. This thing traded over 3 million contracts today. Add in the spiders at 5 million, and you've got 8-9 million contracts out of the market's total 55 million. |
And right now, we're sitting in the most unusual setup I've seen in weeks. |
The market's massively unchanged for the week. Started at 6466, trading at 6481. That's nothing. Not even a real move. |
Yet we're still pricing an $82 expected move for the entire week. |
Here's the part that should make you sit up and pay attention: |
We haven't tagged the upper OR lower edge of that expected move yet. And historically? There's an incredibly high probability we do exactly that in any given week. |
Translation: The real fireworks are still coming. |
Look, NVIDIA earnings just set the tone for AI trade for weeks and months ahead. Until the next major cycle from Meta, Microsoft, or Google. (I'm leaving Apple out because they don't even have AI.) |
But tomorrow morning? That's when things could get really interesting. |
We're getting jobs data that either supports the "cut rates" narrative or completely contradicts it. If it's the latter? Markets are gonna get a little crazy. |
And then there's September... |
Next week we're turning the corner into September - the most volatile month. VIX is sitting pretty at 15 while volatility futures are pricing a reversion to 19-20 VIX just 56 days out. |
VVX is starting to creep up. The hedging activity is building. |
Everyone expects more volatility. The question is: Are you positioned for it? |
I've got specific plays based on what I'm seeing in the order flow. The SPX setup. The volatility divergence. The NVIDIA ripple effects that most people are completely missing. |
Want to see exactly how I'm positioned for what's coming next? |
WATCH: Get my complete market breakdown and positioning |
As I always say: Sit down, strap in, keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times. More volatility is very likely on the way. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. Remember - I trade order flow, not earnings beats. While everyone else is reading press releases, I'm watching where the real money is moving. That's where the opportunities are. |
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One Chart That Matters: SPX | | | | We're sitting at a week and we're pricing in about an $82 expected move for the entire week. Actual move at this point, there's been nothing... The week started 64.66, the week is now trading 64.81. That's not a bullish move. It's a nothing move. We have not tagged the upper or lower edge of an expected move yet. |
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Catalyst Calendar | Tomorrow morning, you're gonna get some jobs data and if that data doesn't coincide with the narrative that we should be cutting interest rates, then markets are gonna get a little crazy. That is critically important coming into tomorrow. | Join Garrett Baldwin LIVE at 8:45 AM ET to be prepared. |
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Macro in 60 Seconds | • Volatility: VIX futures pricing reversion to 19-20 (56+ days out) vs. current 15 | • Expected Moves: SPX weekly range untested, high probability of edge-tagging | • Rate Cuts: Tomorrow's job data critical for narrative continuation | • Market Cap: NVDA move = $300B shift, equivalent to entire Boeing market cap | Bottom Line: Volatility futures are pricing reversion... be mindful of it |
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