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Hey there, Blake here. |
The numbers don't lie - we have stagflation in the data. I don't need to get a report. I can look at the price. |
While everyone waits for economists to publish their quarterly assessments, I'm watching the market scream the answer in real-time. Gold hitting record highs while copper crashes tells me everything I need to know. |
Here's exactly how to read it. |
The 3-Signal Stagflation Detection System |
Stagflation = Inflation without growth. Here's how to spot it as it's happening: |
Signal #1: Gold Breaking Records |
Gold just closed above $2,621.80, targeting $2,716. Smart money is hedging against inflation. When gold makes new highs, institutional players are betting on currency debasement. |
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Signal #2: Growth Commodities Collapsing |
Copper giving sell signals, targeting $4.59. Crude struggling at yearly levels. Both breaking below key support. Translation: Demand for growth-driven materials is dying. |
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Signal #3: The Divergence |
When inflation hedges climb while utility commodities fall, you're seeing inflation without growth to justify it. That's stagflation - and the market's pricing it in real-time. |
Why This Beats Waiting for Reports |
JOLTS came out showing 200,000 fewer job openings than expected. Look what happened immediately: |
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The stagflation setup was complete before most people finished reading the headlines. |
The Proof: Sectors Don't Lie |
When basic materials and industrials sell off on the same day we're pricing in cheaper borrowing costs, that tells me everything. |
Lower rates should help manufacturers. Instead, they're down because the market knows: They won't borrow even if money's cheaper because there's no expansion happening. |
The market's betting against growth while hedging inflation. Classic stagflation. |
How to Read This in Real-Time |
Watch the divergence: Gold up + copper down = stagflation signal Check industrial behavior: Selling off on good news = demand destruction Follow the money flow: Out of growth commodities, into inflation hedges
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When all three align, stagflation's already happening - regardless of what next month's report will say. |
The market's voting every second. The only question is whether you're reading the ballot or waiting for someone else to count the votes. |
If you want to trade along with me, you can catch me in the TheoTrade Chatroom tomorrow. |
Have a good one, |
Blake |
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"The Clock Was Ticking" | That one line won a $230,000 court case. | And exposed Wall Street's last dirty secret. | Hidden timers buried deep in the market... | Moving billions every day from retail traders to insiders. | Don calls them SHADOW CLOCKS. | They're ticking right now. | September 4th @ 2PM EST - I'm exposing these secret timers for the first time ever. | The clocks don't wait. | |
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Macro In 60 Seconds | | | | • Jolts data came in weaker (7.18M vs forecast 7.38M), signaling labor market softening | • Fed rate cut probability jumped from 88% last week → 95% today via CME FedWatch | • Jobs data deterioration aligns with Fed's Jackson Hole guidance: labor weakness = justification to cut even if inflation elevated | • Expected outcome: weaker USD, stronger equities and gold | Bottom Line: Market nearly pricing in a September cut, dollar weakening theme dominates. |
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Playbook | Stagflation = inflation hedge assets up (gold), growth-demand commodities down (crude, copper), equities rotation/divergence across indexes, bonds bid. |
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