Don here.
Something's not adding up…
The VIX jumped 6.71% today. Yet, the S&P 500 kissed all-time highs.
That's not supposed to happen when everyone "knows" what the Fed will do on Wednesday.
Everyone thinks we have a "guaranteed" quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday.
I mean, the Fed Watch Tool shows a 96% probability. Plus, markets have been rallying since But here's where it gets interesting:
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Only 185 stocks advanced while 314 declined in the S&P 500
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Google up 4%, Tesla up 3%, but breadth was terrible
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Gold surged 1% despite rate cuts being "fully priced in"
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Dollar weakened significantly ahead of a known event
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VIX jumped from 14.76 to 15.75 when it should be falling
We entered this week with an expected move of just 93 points.
Brandon and the team immediately flagged that as suspiciously low for a Fed week. The VIX spike today confirms their instincts were right.
Brandon's analysis reveals we're seeing classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" positioning. The market has been grinding higher on Mag Seven strength since Jackson Hole, but underneath the surface, institutional money is quietly hedging.
The skew reading can tell us the full story.
If it rises alongside the VIX, that's confirmation that serious hedging activity is ramping up ahead of Wednesday. Translation: Smart money is preparing for volatility that retail investors aren't expecting.
This is exactly the kind of institutional footprint that Brandon's Ghost Prints system is designed to detect. The unusual options flow, the hedging pressure, the disconnect between surface action and underlying positioning.
Look, we're sitting at all-time highs with a Fed decision that's supposedly "foregone."
Yet gold is rallying, the dollar is weakening, and volatility is spiking. That's not the behavior of a market confident in what's coming next.
The risk isn't that the Fed surprises with the rate cut itself…
The risk is that the market's reaction to a perfectly predictable quarter-point cut exposes how extended and narrow this rally has become.
Don't let the surface-level strength fool you. When the VIX is screaming danger while indexes hit new highs, smart traders pay attention.
👉 Click here to watch Brandon break down the hidden signals in today's session
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADEf
