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Apple Stock Positioned for Holiday Gains With iPhone 17 Boost
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 9/30/2025.
Key Points
- Early iPhone 17 sales and new AI features could fuel Apple stock gains during the holiday season.
- Apple’s privacy-focused on-device AI may accelerate growth in high-margin Apple Services revenue.
- Bullish technical indicators, including a Golden Cross, suggest upside for AAPL stock.
Over the past three months, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has surged more than 26%, making it one of the top performers in the tech sector. While the stock is only up about 11% over the last 12 months, analysts see further upside as Apple heads into the holiday shopping season—and once again, it all comes back to the iPhone.
Since its Sept. 19 debut, the iPhone 17 has delivered stronger-than-expected sales, driven in part by Apple holding the base model's price steady. With many users still on an iPhone 15 or older, upgrade demand remains robust.
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That said, some skeptics point to signs of a slowdown in the U.S., suggesting that consumers may have front-loaded iPhone 16 purchases to sidestep new tariffs.
Apple's AI Play Could Quiet Skeptics
Critics note that Apple trails rivals such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms in cloud-focused AI investments totaling billions of dollars. However, the iPhone 17 introduces several on-device AI features—enhanced Siri, real-time translation and advanced image/video editing—that could resonate with consumers.
Early sales indicate these capabilities may boost holiday demand and drive subscriptions to Apple's high-margin Services business, including iCloud, Apple Music and Apple TV+.
On-Device AI Underpins Privacy-First Strategy
Another catalyst for upgrades is Apple's privacy-first approach to AI. Rather than relying solely on cloud computing, Apple leverages its custom A-series and M-series chips to run AI models locally.
Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts the edge AI market could reach $143 billion by 2034. By keeping AI workloads within its iOS ecosystem, Apple appeals to regulators and consumers cautious about cloud-based data collection.
Technical Indicators Point to Continued Upside
Technically, AAPL recently formed a Golden Cross, with its 50-day simple moving average crossing above its 200-day SMA. The stock closed at $253.44 on Sept. 26, confirming the bullish signal. Yet an RSI near 68 suggests near-term overbought conditions, with resistance around $260 ahead of the company's Oct. 30 earnings report.
Should shares pull back, the 50-day SMA (around $229) could offer support. Maintaining that level would reinforce a breakout toward the 52-week high near $260.
This technical backdrop aligns with growing analyst optimism. Dan Ives of Wedbush is the most bullish, raising his price target for AAPL shares to $310 from $270.
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