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Apple Stock Positioned for Holiday Gains With iPhone 17 Boost
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 9/30/2025.
Key Points
- Early iPhone 17 sales and new AI features could fuel Apple stock gains during the holiday season.
- Apple’s privacy-focused on-device AI may accelerate growth in high-margin Apple Services revenue.
- Bullish technical indicators, including a Golden Cross, suggest upside for AAPL stock.
Over the past three months, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has surged more than 26%, making it one of the top performers in the tech sector. Although the stock is up about 11% over the past year, analysts see room for more gains as the holiday season approaches—largely driven by the iPhone.
Since its Sept. 19 debut, Apple has reported stronger-than-expected sales of the iPhone 17. By keeping the base model's price unchanged, Apple has encouraged upgrades, particularly from owners of iPhone 15 and earlier.
Altucher: October 30th, Trump's Great Gain is Goes Ballistic (Ad)
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Still, skeptics note the early momentum may be slowing in the U.S., arguing that many consumers front-loaded iPhone 16 purchases to avoid tariff impacts.
Apple's AI Story May Surprise Critics
Critics often highlight that Apple lags behind Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms in AI, with those peers committing billions to cloud-based AI initiatives. While the latest iPhone launch won't erase all doubts, it introduces new AI features—enhanced Siri, real-time translation, and advanced photo and video editing—that could boost holiday sales.
Stronger iPhone turnover also raises the likelihood of consumers subscribing to Apple's high-margin Services ecosystem, including iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple TV+.
Is Apple's Walled Garden the Key to AI Success?
Apple's privacy-first approach to AI may be another upgrade driver. Though rarely first to market, the company excels at executing well-integrated features over time. This strategy shines with on-device (edge) AI, a segment Bloomberg Intelligence predicts will reach $143 billion by 2034.
By running AI models locally on its custom A-series and M-series chips within its tightly controlled iOS ecosystem, Apple addresses regulatory and consumer concerns over data collection—an edge that cloud-based rivals lack.
Momentum Favors Further Stock Gains
Technically, AAPL recently formed a Golden Cross as its 50-day simple moving average climbed above the 200-day SMA. The stock closed at $253.44 on Sept. 26, confirming the bullish pattern. However, with an RSI near 68, AAPL may face resistance around $260, potentially leading to consolidation or profit-taking ahead of earnings on Oct. 30.
If a pullback occurs, the 50-day SMA—around $229—could serve as key support. Holding above that level would reinforce the breakout and pave the way for a challenge of the 52-week high near $260.
Analyst optimism aligns with this technical backdrop. Many analysts are raising their price targets on AAPL, led by Dan Ives of Wedbush who boosted his target to $310 from $270.
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