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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com

IBM's Steep Drop on AI Fears May Be an Overreaction

Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 2/25/2026.

IBM quantum computing system display in a glass case, highlighting IBM stock and AI infrastructure focus.

Key Points

  • International Business Machines consistently generates exceptional free cash flow to comfortably support ongoing corporate transformation and reliable shareholder dividend payouts.
  • Strategic acquisitions strongly enhance hybrid cloud architecture and provide a robust foundation for future enterprise technology expansion.
  • Proprietary artificial intelligence innovations allow clients to safely modernize their legacy code directly on highly secure mainframe platforms.
  • Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]

A sudden collision between cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) startups and legacy enterprise infrastructure wiped out billions in shareholder dollars. On Feb. 23, 2026, International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) suffered its steepest single-day decline since 2000. Shares fell 13.2%, erasing roughly $30 billion in market capitalization in a matter of hours.

The trigger was a single product announcement from AI startup Anthropic. The company unveiled additional features for Claude Code, including tools that claim to automate the modernization of COBOL — the decades-old language that still underpins large parts of the global financial system. Investors feared that automated code translation would instantly erode the lucrative infrastructure and consulting revenues tied to maintaining these systems. That panic sparked a sector-wide contagion, pulling down major IT service providers.

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However, the dramatic sell-off appears to be fading. The stock rebounded the next day, closing up 2.68% at $229.34 on exceptionally heavy volume of over 13.3 million shares. Major Wall Street analysts, including teams at Wedbush and Evercore ISI, quickly defended the stock. They called the slide an overreaction and flagged it as a buying opportunity for investors who understand enterprise-technology realities.

Why AI Cannot Replace a Mainframe

Enterprise clients cannot simply abandon mainframes because a new AI tool can translate legacy code. There is a fundamental difference between converting code syntax and modernizing a deeply integrated hardware–software architecture.

The structural moat of the Z series mainframe remains intact. A basic software-as-a-service tool hosted on a public server cannot replicate the hardware-level guarantees required by the world's largest institutions. The current-generation mainframe is purpose-built from silicon up to deliver unmatched transactional resilience:

  • Massive scale: A single system can process 25 billion encrypted transactions per day.
  • AI throughput: The platform supports 450 billion AI inferences per day with one-millisecond response times.
  • Extreme reliability: The hardware operates with up to eight nines of availability.
  • Future-proof security: The system includes quantum-safe encryption to guard against evolving cyber threats.

More than 90% of the world's credit-card transactions are processed by these specialized systems. Regulated entities — global banks, insurance firms and governments — are unlikely to migrate their most sensitive operational data to third-party public clouds because of data-sovereignty, regulatory compliance and security risks.

Interestingly, AI can strengthen this moat rather than dissolve it. IBM already offers a proprietary generative AI tool, watsonx Code Assistant for Z, which lets clients refactor and modernize legacy code directly on the platform while preserving enterprise-grade security.

Pristine Financials Hidden in the Noise

The recent market panic obscured the company's underlying financial performance. Before the AI-driven sell-off, fourth-quarter 2025 earnings delivered broad-based growth that beat Wall Street expectations:

  • Earnings beat: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $4.52, versus consensus of $4.33.
  • Revenue surge: Fourth-quarter revenue reached $19.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase.
  • Segment strength: Growth was driven by a 14% rise in Software revenue and a 21% jump in Infrastructure revenue.
  • Record cash: Free cash flow for full-year 2025 hit a record $14.7 billion, up $2 billion from the prior year.

The business is growing and generating substantial cash independent of the recent market noise. IBM's internal generative-AI book of business now exceeds $12.5 billion, including more than $10.5 billion in consulting and about $2 billion in software, demonstrating successful AI monetization within regulated enterprises.

Management is also deploying capital to strengthen the high-margin software portfolio. Recent strategic acquisitions — HashiCorp ($6.4 billion) and Confluent (NASDAQ: CFLT) ($11 billion) — enhance the company's hybrid-cloud capabilities. To further cement its AI position, IBM recently announced a major collaboration with Deepgram to integrate advanced voice AI into its enterprise solutions.

A 3% Dividend Yield Built on Rock-Solid Cash

The sharp decline in IBM’s share price compressed the stock's valuation. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to roughly 20.5, offering a more attractive entry point than earlier in the year. Because dividend yields move inversely to price, the pullback has also pushed the dividend yield to about 2.93%.

Management has a 30-year track record of consecutive annual dividend increases. The payout is well covered by the growing free cash flow described above. Guidance for 2026 projects more than 5% constant-currency revenue growth and an additional $1 billion increase in free cash flow, signaling confidence in the ongoing transformation.

While the market fixates on short-term disruption narratives and flashy startup announcements, the underlying metrics tell a different story. The financials remain strong, and the core infrastructure is far more defensible than basic code translation implies. For patient investors, the recent volatility has created a meaningful discount to buy shares of a profitable, cash-generating, entrenched technology leader.


 

Further Reading from MarketBeat.com

Wall Street Loves FIGS. So Why Do Price Targets Predict a Pullback?

Reported by Jennifer Woods. Publication Date: 3/2/2026.

After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has returned to a price it hasn't seen in nearly four years. The stock has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% jump in the last month alone. The rally has been fueled by strong earnings reports and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the rebound and positive sentiment, the consensus 12-month price target sits at just $12.25 — almost 30% below the current stock price. That gap raises the question: how much of this recovery is supported by fundamentals, and how much is momentum? A closer look at FIGS' recent earnings and the stock's price movement offers some clues.

Early investors in FIGS enjoyed a quick windfall after the company's May 2021 IPO at $22 per share; within a month the stock had surged to $50. The COVID-19 pandemic had created strong demand for medical apparel, but as the pandemic eased shares reversed sharply and, within a year, were trading below $8. In the years that followed, FIGS largely traded in the single digits. After dipping below $4 in April 2025, the stock began another run — this time to the upside.

Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally

FIGS posted steady gains after positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, and its Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 6, accelerated the move. The report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across core product lines, and healthy margins despite tariff-related headwinds. The company also raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street responded, sending the stock up more than 30% over the following week and prompting Zacks Research to upgrade the shares to Strong Buy from Hold.

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Key Points

  • FIGS stock is up nearly 260% over the last year
  • Strong earnings have fueled the rally
  • Stock is trading almost 30% above the average price target
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The rally continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report released on Feb. 26. The company reported a 33% jump in revenue and its best quarterly sales ever, with quarterly revenue topping $200 million. Management highlighted growth in its active customer base and higher average order values, and noted that scrubwear — which accounted for more than three-quarters of net revenue — rose 35%. International sales climbed 55% and helped drive overall growth. The fourth quarter capped a strong year: full-year net revenue climbed 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff pressures that compressed gross margins, profitability remained robust, with full-year adjusted EBITDA margin beating the company's target by more than 200 basis points.

Earnings and Outlook Spark Analyst Support

FIGS issued an upbeat outlook for the year ahead, forecasting continued demand supported in part by growth in healthcare employment. The company highlighted plans to expand into new international markets, prioritize growth opportunities across its businesses, and continue its share buyback program. For fiscal 2026, FIGS expects net revenue to grow 10%–12%, with improved profitability targets.

Analysts reacted positively to the results and guidance. Barclays upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target, and Goldman Sachs shifted its rating to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9.

FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets

Strong earnings have been the primary catalyst behind FIGS' move to four-year highs. Shares began climbing before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release, and the rally intensified after the results. The stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the report and added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, roughly 30% above the average 12-month price target of $12.25 based on 10 analyst reports. That level is more than double Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and sits above even the highest target of $17 set by KeyCorp.

The gap between bullish analyst commentary and comparatively modest price targets suggests analysts like the company's improving fundamentals but remain cautious about valuation. At current levels, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio near 90, implying much of FIGS' expected growth may already be priced in. Investors are clearly rewarding the company's turnaround, but skepticism remains about whether the stock can sustain this pace or if a pullback could be ahead.


 
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