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We’re All Multimillionaires Now

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THE SHORTEST WAY TO A RICH LIFE

We're All Multimillionaires Now

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

I received some blowback from Friday's column, where I celebrated the record number of ultra-rich people in the world.

Some folks sincerely believe that we live in a zero-sum world, where the only way one person has more is if someone else has less.

If that were true, national incomes, national household net wealth and our national GDP would not keep increasing, as they have now for over a century.

Here's a thought experiment for people upset by economic inequality...

Imagine if everyone in the United States were suddenly given a million dollars, every single person. Even the homeless.

There would be no poor. No middle class. Everyone's essential needs would be met.

Yet we have still done absolutely nothing about wealth concentration and economic inequality.

Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk still have hundreds of billions of dollars more than everyone else.

And that's not fair!

Of course, no one – least of all the government (which has zero money aside from what it extracts from individuals and businesses with an implied threat of force) – is going to give everyone a million dollars.

(That's why it's a thought experiment, not a new policy proposal from AOC.)

But I have good news for you...

Reach into your pocket. If there's a smartphone in there, you're a multimillionaire.

I mean this literally. Smartphone ownership is nearly universal in the United States.

That slab of glass you use to doom scroll social media and order DoorDash would have cost millions of dollars to assemble just a few decades ago.

And parts of it couldn't have been bought at any price, by anyone, including the richest man on the planet.

Yet we've gotten so used to the miracle that we get irritated when it buffers and we have to look at the spinning wheel for a few seconds.

In 1985, the most powerful computer on Earth was the Cray-2.

It was a bench-shaped machine submerged in liquid coolant, and it cost around $17 million.

It was not for sale to you, however. It went to nuclear weapons labs, defense agencies, and a handful of elite research institutions.

A decade later, in 1997, a machine called ASCI Red became the first computer ever to break one trillion calculations per second.

It cost about $55 million, sprawled across roughly 1,600 square feet – the footprint of a good-sized house – and again, it existed to simulate nuclear explosions, not to fit in your jeans.

Today your phone laughs at both of them.

The chip inside a current iPhone or Android flagship blows past a trillion operations per second without breaking a sweat, sips battery power for a full day, and rides around in your back pocket.

The single most powerful machine on the planet in 1997, a $55 million national asset reserved for a superpower's weapons program, is now the thing you use to argue with strangers and identify songs in a coffee shop.

That alone – just the raw computing – is millions of dollars of capability. But your phone is only just getting started.

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Empty your pockets onto a table the way you would have needed to in 1995, and look at the pile required to do what your phone does:

A camera. A video camcorder. A GPS navigation unit. A Walkman and a binder of CDs. A television and a VCR. A landline phone with a long-distance plan. A pocket calculator. A voice recorder. A pager. An alarm clock. A compass. A flashlight. A pocket calendar. A stack of paper maps and a road atlas. A set of encyclopedias. A shelf of reference books. A handheld video game. A photo album – plus the film, plus the developing fees, forever.

Add it up honestly and you're already into thousands of dollars of gear, most of it worse than the version now bundled into a device that weighs about as much as a candy bar.

And then there's the category that breaks the spreadsheet entirely – the things that couldn't be purchased at all, by anyone, at any net worth:

  • Turn-by-turn navigation that watches live traffic and reroutes you around a jam before you hit it.
  • A video call to the other side of the planet, in your hand, for free.
  • Instant translation of a menu, a sign, a stranger's sentence, in a language you've never studied.
  • The entire recorded musical output of human history, available on a whim.
  • A library larger than Alexandria ever dreamed of being, searchable in a quarter-second.

You have all this on the toilet.

Here's the part the gloom-merchants miss. Wealth is not the number in your bank account.

Real wealth is command over goods and services – the actual ability to summon capability into your life.

It's what the money can do.

And by that measure – the only measure that ultimately matters – the median teenager today commands more than the wealthiest tycoon of a generation ago.

More information. More communication. More entertainment. More navigation, computation, and creation.

A kid with a $300 phone now holds powers that $300 million couldn't have assembled in 1990, because half of it hadn't been invented and the other half filled a building.

The dollar price of all this collapsed toward zero.

But the value – what it would have cost, what it would have been worth, what people would have killed for – runs into the millions.

Prices fell through the floor and wealth went through the roof, at the same time, for everyone.

That's the deflation of abundance, and it's the most democratic wealth transfer in the history of our species.

Now, obviously you can't eat a smartphone. It won't pay your rent, cover a hospital bill, or write a tuition check.

Those things have gotten more expensive, not less.

The world has become miraculously cheap in bits and stubbornly expensive in atoms: in housing, in healthcare, in the things made of land and bricks and labor.

We've made the digital world nearly free while the physical world keeps getting dearer, and the central economic challenge of our age is to make atoms cheaper like bits.

We've done it for computation and communication. But we're still working on physical things.

But don't let that blind you to the marvel of the supercomputer in your hand.

You own a machine that thirty years ago would have cost millions of dollars, occupied a room, and been reserved for world governments.

Yet you bought it for less than a used couch. You take it everywhere. And you cuss when you're out of range of wi-fi and a video takes a few extra seconds to load.

It represents the single most astonishing progress any generation of human beings has ever lived through.

The inequality-obsessives don't recognize this but it's essentially true anyway: We're all multimillionaires now.

Good investing,

Alex

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