Thanks to a new law Trump just signed…
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The AI Boom Has a Second Act—And It's Playing Out in Optics
Authored by Bridget Bennett. Publication Date: 6/29/2026.
Key Points
- Optical fiber, connectors, and routing systems—not chips—are emerging as a critical and underappreciated layer of AI infrastructure investment.
- Amphenol, Corning, and Ciena have each recently beaten earnings estimates and secured major hyperscaler contracts tied to data center expansion.
- Analyst Lucas Downey argues that earnings estimate revisions, not stock price momentum, are the key signal for identifying opportunities in optical networking stocks.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
The AI build-out conversation tends to start and stop with chips. But the companies quietly landing multi-year, multi-billion-dollar contracts right now aren't making semiconductors—they're making the glass, connectors, and routing systems that hold the entire data center ecosystem together.
Lucas Downey of TradeSmith sees the AI infrastructure stack as five distinct layers: land and site development, power, cooling, compute and memory, and networking and connectivity.
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Click here to claim your free copy before the offer endsThat last layer—fiber, optics, and high-speed interconnects—is where he's focused, and where he believes analysts are still playing catch-up.
The Shift From Copper to Glass
The transition driving demand here is straightforward: data centers are moving away from copper wiring and toward optical links made of glass and fiber. Optical connections carry data at the speed of light, generate less heat than copper, and reduce cooling costs.
For hyperscalers running massive AI workloads, those efficiency gains compound quickly.
Downey estimates AI infrastructure capital expenditure is approaching $1 trillion globally. The optical networking segment alone is already facing supply bottlenecks—there aren't enough components to meet demand—which is exactly the kind of constraint that tends to reward established manufacturers with the capacity to scale.
Amphenol: Connectors at the Core of Every Rack
The first name Downey highlights is Amphenol Corporation (NYSE: APH), one of the world's largest manufacturers of electronic connectors and interconnect systems. Amphenol isn't making the lasers or chips—it's making the physical connections between every component inside a data center: the racks, the servers, the assemblies. In high-speed AI workloads, every nanosecond of latency matters, and every connection counts.
The company delivered one of the biggest earnings beats of the recent season, with revenue of $7.62 billion, well above the Street's estimate of $7.08 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also beat, and guidance came in above expectations. Downey notes that the size of the beat is what is drawing renewed attention from analysts, who he says are still revising numbers higher.
Amphenol carries roughly a $200 billion market cap and has posted double-digit revenue and earnings growth projections extending out to 2028—making it, in Downey's view, a core position in a theme that isn't slowing down.
Corning: The Fiber Backbone of the AI Era
The most widely recognized name on the list is Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW), a company that has been manufacturing specialty glass for over 170 years and is now at the center of the next generation of optical fiber infrastructure.
Corning recently secured two significant hyperscaler deals. The first is a partnership with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) to expand U.S.-based optical connectivity manufacturing—Corning expects to grow its U.S. optical connectivity capacity 10x and its U.S. fiber capacity by more than 50% under the agreement. The second is a multi-billion-dollar deal with Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) for U.S. fiber manufacturing, announced earlier this month.
At a J.P. Morgan conference, Corning's management projected its sales run rate reaching $20 billion by year-end, $30 billion by 2028, and $40 billion by 2030. On the earnings side, Downey points to EPS slated around $3.19 this year, accelerating to $4.21 next year and $5.75 in 2028. He expects those numbers to be revised higher as more hyperscalers follow NVIDIA and Amazon to the table.
The stock has already had a substantial run, and the analyst consensus has been slow to keep pace. Downey draws a direct parallel to Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), where analysts persistently underestimated the demand cycle before eventually catching up with a wave of estimate upgrades. He sees the same dynamic unfolding in optical.
Ciena: The Traffic Director of the Optical Network
The third name is Ciena Corporation (NYSE: CIEN), which Downey describes as the intelligent routing layer of the optical ecosystem. Where Amphenol handles physical connections and Corning manufactures the fiber cables, Ciena optimizes how data travels through those cables—routing light-speed signals, managing bandwidth, and reducing congestion across distributed AI clusters with thousands of simultaneous data packets in motion.
Ciena's recent earnings reflected the same demand story: EPS came in at $1.64 against estimates of $1.46, revenue beat consensus, and the company raised its full-year guidance to $6.3 billion—above the prior estimate of $6.15 billion—while noting margin expansion.
The stock has pulled back after a roughly 500% one-year run, which Downey attributes to seasonal mechanics—Russell index reconstitution and quarter-end rebalancing—rather than any change in fundamentals. He sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with full-year 2026 EPS estimates around $6.50, accelerating to $9.65 the following year and $14.28 in 2028.
Following the Earnings, Not the Headlines
The broader framework Downey applies across all three names is the same: track where earnings estimates are going, not where the stock price has already been. When a company is landing multi-year deals with the world's largest cloud providers, the official estimates tend to lag reality. Analyst upgrades follow contracts, and stock re-ratings follow upgrades.
Near-term volatility—whether from AI bubble headlines, sector rotations, or index rebalancing—doesn't change the underlying demand picture. The data center build-out has committed capital stretching to 2030 and beyond. For investors willing to look past the noise, the optical layer may be the quietest opportunity left in an AI trade that's anything but quiet.
The Quantum Bubble Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 6/30/2026.
Key Points
- Quantum computing stocks have rallied sharply, but investors still need to weigh valuations against current revenue, profitability, commercial demand and cash burn.
- D-Wave and Rigetti both trade at extremely high sales multiples, with Rigetti’s revenue decline making future contract wins especially important.
- IonQ shows stronger revenue growth and commercial traction, but high R&D spending and potential dilution remain key risks across the sector.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
As with the AI industry, investors often dismiss quantum computing as a "bubble." In both cases, however, it is important to understand what that criticism really means. Quantum technology, like AI, is unquestionably real and rapidly advancing—even if the eventual end goals and use cases are not always clear to those outside the space. As a result, concerns about a potential bubble have less to do with the technology itself and more to do with whether current market valuations for quantum companies have risen too far, too fast, relative to the stage of the underlying technology.
A balanced approach to evaluating a potential quantum bubble must consider valuations relative to revenue, profitability, commercial demand, cash burn, and external threats.
The Valuation Growth Issue
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Click here to claim your free copy before the offer endsMany pure-play quantum computing companies have seen rapid share price appreciation in recent years: D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS), for example, is up 68% over the last year, while Rigetti Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) has climbed about 65% during that time.
Investors will want to see revenue growth that can support those valuation gains. In D-Wave's case, full-year 2025 revenue increased 179% year over year (YOY), while Rigetti's full-year 2025 revenue declined from the prior year. Even with D-Wave's impressive growth, revenue remained low in absolute terms, with the company reporting around $25 million for all of 2025.
To monitor how valuation and revenue line up, investors will want to watch metrics like the price-to-sales ratio. Both companies recently traded at extremely high sales multiples, with D-Wave above 700 times sales and Rigetti even higher.
That gives investors reason to question whether those stock prices have moved too far ahead of current revenue.
Rigetti illustrates why that concern is not just theoretical. Unlike D-Wave, its 2025 revenue declined from the prior year, making future contract wins and revenue conversion especially important for the stock.
Profitability and Demand Concerns
It is not just sales that determine the viability of quantum computing firms. Profitability is essential as well. Many companies in this space still share similar traits, including negative operating margins and free cash flow, heavy spending on R&D, and continued reliance on external capital. While that is typical for companies in the early stages of a nascent industry, investors will want to know whether valuations are already pricing in profit levels that may still be many years away.
IonQ is a good example, particularly because it has some of the highest revenues of any company in the industry (in Q1 2026, the company reported almost $65 million in sales, up 755% YOY). On top of strong sales growth, IonQ also has an advantage in that it is quickly building commercial traction—something not all quantum firms have managed to do so far.
Even so, with GAAP R&D costs more than tripling YOY to almost $126 million in Q1 2026, IonQ faces a major hurdle on the path to profitability. Like many other pure-play quantum names, it will need access to additional sources of funding in order to keep developing its technology.
A Bright Spot: Cash Reserves
While cash burn remains high, one bright spot for some pure-play quantum companies is their cash reserves. IonQ ended Q1 2026 with $3.1 billion in cash, for instance, while D-Wave has been able to use its cash position to make an aggressive acquisition earlier in the year. This suggests these companies have decent runways and are not in immediate danger of collapse. Investors will still want to see signs that they can generate enough free cash flow over time to support their expenses, though.
Another question for investors is whether these companies are building cash reserves in a way that is dilutive to shareholders. The industry has become known for capital raises through the sale of additional shares, a move that can provide near-term cash but may also reduce the appeal for investors and signal longer-term concerns.
The Looming External Threat
A final factor for investors to watch is the external threat posed by other tech firms entering the quantum computing corner of the sector. Companies like D-Wave and Rigetti are tiny compared with rivals that have growing quantum arms, such as Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) and IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM), both of which have recently signaled plans to double down on their quantum operations.
Interest from legacy tech companies is likely to benefit quantum technology as a whole. However, it may be detrimental—or even catastrophic—for smaller firms already facing the many pressures described above. All of this adds to the risk profile of these companies, which investors must keep in mind.
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