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This Week's Featured Content
Why PriceSmart’s Discount May Not Last Much LongerWritten by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 4/10/2026.
Key Points
- PriceSmart is positioned to grow, drive cash flow, and pay dividends in 2026, outperforming estimates for fiscal Q2.
- Marketshare gains, new stores, and comp-store growth underpin an outlook for double-digit earnings growth over the coming years.
- PriceSmart’s valuation remains below that of its larger membership-club peers, though emerging-market exposure and currency volatility remain key risks.
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PriceSmart (NASDAQ: PSMT) carries elevated emerging-market risk, but it is well positioned and trades at a discount to larger peers, Walmart’s (NASDAQ: WMT) Sam’s Club and Costco (NASDAQ: COST). Those two leading membership-club retailers trade at much higher valuations, implying significant upside for PriceSmart. The company trades at roughly 29x earnings versus Costco’s about 50x, a gap supported by PriceSmart’s ability to grow. PriceSmart self-funds its growth and leads on percentage gains. Its fiscal Q2 2026 results showed revenue growth of 9.7%, compared with Costco's 9.1% and Walmart's 5.6% for the comparable period.
Analyst Jim Rickards believes gold could climb to $10,000 per ounce or higher in the coming years - and he says investors still have time to position ahead of the move.
His top recommendation is a $2 stock he describes as sitting on the largest gold deposit in the world, with an extraction green light potentially arriving April 15. See Jim Rickards' number one gold recommendation for 2026
Looking ahead, PriceSmart expects to sustain a double-digit growth pace, driven by market-share gains, comp-store growth, and new openings. As of fiscal Q2 2026, the company’s store count was up 3.7% year over year and is expected to rise nearly 9% by the end of FY2027. PriceSmart Outperformance Triggers Continuation SignalPriceSmart delivered a solid fiscal Q2, with revenue rising 9.7% to $1.5 billion, beating the consensus by roughly 135 basis points. The gain was driven by a 9.9% increase in merchandise sales, supported by a 7.8% gain in net sales and a 2.1% currency tailwind. Comp-store sales increased 7.6% (5.5% adjusted for currency translation), and membership fees grew 17%, pointing to continued comp-store strength in upcoming quarters. Margins also improved. Stronger revenue leverage, better-than-expected traffic, and operational execution drove earnings higher. EBITDA—an indicator of core profitability—rose 14.5%, and GAAP EPS came in at $1.62, several cents ahead of consensus. Margins are expected to remain healthy in the next quarter, supporting a positive market reaction. PriceSmart’s stock jumped more than 2% after the release, pushing the shares to a new all-time high. The move confirms an uptrend and a bullish flag pattern that signals trend continuation. Targets from the flag are based on the flag pole’s magnitude—about $22—placing the stock near $175 by midyear. Longer-term upside should be supported by consistent growth, improving cash flow, and the company’s ability to return capital. PriceSmart’s Dividend and Distribution Growth Make It a Buy-and-Hold InvestmentPriceSmart is not a high-yielding stock, but it is a reliable dividend payer with a history of sizable increases. In early 2026 the yield was below 1%, but that low yield is offset by a conservative payout ratio and strong distribution growth. The payout ratio is roughly 20%, leaving ample room for increases without requiring double-digit earnings growth. Distribution growth has compounded in the low teens, a rate that appears sustainable given the current payout ratio and earnings trajectory. Institutional ownership supports the stock’s dividend and growth thesis, but it can also affect price action. Institutions own more than 80% of the shares and, while they bought on balance over the trailing 12 months, they were net sellers in Q1 2026. That dynamic can make it harder for the stock to sustain gains in the near term. On the flip side, the fiscal Q2 results could bring institutions back into accumulation, as similar results have done for other retail companies. There were no obvious red flags on the quarter’s balance sheet—only indications that the company can continue executing its plan. Despite a modest decline in cash at the end of fiscal Q2, PriceSmart remains well-capitalized; increases in current and total assets help offset the cash reduction. Liability increases were manageable, equity rose, and leverage remains low. Long-term debt is less than 0.25x equity, keeping the company flexible and able to raise capital if needed. The primary risks this year include rising costs, margin pressure, and foreign-exchange volatility. So far, rising costs and margin pressures have been contained, while FX volatility is an external factor likely to persist. |